I asked around on Twitter for resources for NFT skeptics, and here are a few that I enjoyed…
- Gary Vaynerchuk and Raoul Pal: The Turning Point of a New Era for Digital Assets
- JPEG the Jeweller by Arthur Hayes
- Damien Hirst and Stephen Fry discuss Damien’s artwork, The Currency
- eGirl Capital: Online Identity, NFTs, Human Reasoning, Markets
I also liked this write-up by @alexdavidkim, and basically share his views. NFTs aren’t a sure thing. Maybe all the current ones are worthless in 10 years? But in general, the internet is playing a larger and larger role in daily life. I expect that trend to show in art and collectibles as well.
First off, I am not positive on my thesis, of course I could be wrong. But in general, most new ideas follow the same progression inside people’s minds. (Not going to work -> well it’s working now, ponzi -> biggest ponzi of all time -> I will now fight this as it’s a part of my identity to not be wrong about this). I think most people are still somewhere in this mindset so from an investment perspective, the risk reward is massive. It takes a long time for people to change their minds. So yes, could easily be wrong, but being right and figuring that out before the majority is usually very profitable.
Bull case for NFTs: there has never been a single year since 2000 where the average person has spent less time online than in person. This trend is NOT slowing down, I am almost positive of this. I hate that humans are such signaling machines, but my preferences as to how humans should behave shouldn’t affect my investment decisions. I’ve always thought art, fancy watches, designer clothes, were all nonsense. Doesn’t mean there isn’t a very large market for it.
I also think a good way to view the internet in general is removing on/off ramps + middlemen. This trend will continue. I think most people actually really like art, but it is such a high friction activity. You have to go to a physical gallery. Get greeted by a snooty curator who is judging your taste. Verify authenticity through a piece of paper that could be forged. Drill holes in the wall. Make sure no kids spill juice on the piece. All this for the 3 visitors you get a year.
Now look at how many people got into art with IG, Etsy, etc. They are slowly removing the friction. This is the next evolution.
When you REALLY look at anything, it usually ends up looking kind of silly. The only difference between NFTs and say women who wear tons of makeup is that you grew up seeing one constantly so you’re not as harsh to judge. Seeing something new, getting past that initial skepticism, and trying to see if there is a market for it is the way.
Old school companies like Sotheby’s/Christie’s picking it up quickly was one of my biggest reassurances. These companies are used to thinking outside the box. I think it’s totally reasonable that within 5-10 years, women will want an NFT from a Tiffany’s NFT collection over a necklace they wear 1x a year.